Irish Unification Plebiscite Cannot Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."